Hakiri

Last Wednesday (09/09/2009) Derren Brown predicted, or at least he made us to believe that he did, five numbers from the lottery draw aired on BBC. For those of you who have no clue what I am talking about, here is a video footage from the show.

How did he do it? I was eager to find out but since he promised to reveal the secret the following Friday, I retained myself from making any guesses until I see the show on TV first. His explanation is out now and as I thought things do not add up as nicely as I would like.

So here is what I think is possible and what is not. Let’s lay out some facts:

1. You cannot predict a relatively random sequence of numbers – unless it is not random at all. Any claims and proof that the lottery is predictable will make the draw automatically invalid. Not random means that it is fixed. It also means that it is unfair.
2. The lottery draw is NOT invalid – and therefore it wasn’t predicted as he tried to made us to believe. Derren did get an approval from Camelot to do the show and they were completely aware of what he was up to. Camelot knew that the draw cannot be invalidated because Derren did not and could not get the winning numbers, which leads us to the obvious conclusion that it is only an illusion.
3. Even if the lottery can be predicted due to being not random, it is very unlikely that Derren has access to resources that can give him the ability to predict the numbers. Think about all technical aspects required to perform a one time guess of something that is the end result of many system properties and variables which are influenced by all kinds of internal and external processes.

The most likely explanation of the trick is usually the most obvious one. The most obvious explanation is that this is a live video montage. Why? Well, why didn’t he do the draw live on stage but inside a studio? The reason for this is because he cannot guess the winning numbers. Only a studio with fixed lighting and scene will let him to create the illusion.

Another peculiar thing about this act is that he essentially gives deliberate hints on exactly how everything works in reality. At the beginning of the show where the trick was explained, he starts by presenting to the audience 3 possible options he could have employed in order to pull off this trick. Here they are:

1. Fake a ticket
2. Genuinely guess the winning numbers
3. Fix the machine

The funny thing is how he disregards the first and most obvious solution by suggesting that it is too obvious and uninteresting and therefore it should be ignored. He quickly moves on on the second possible solution. Now this is basically 99% of the entire show. It is extremely convoluted and full of pseudoscience of all sorts. The last possible solution is of course not possible at all since this will undoubtedly land him in jail, nevertheless he spends a couple of minutes on it at the end of the show to force us to thinker between options 2 and 3 and completely ignore option 1. He is a mentalist after all.

Derren Brown is a magician at the end of the day. The power is not in the trick but in the magician being able to produce an image of something magical happening.

I quite like Darren Brown’s work although I realize that at the end of the day it is all tricks, some of which are quite simple. Before we move on with my explanation how one of his recent tricks works, have a look at the following footages just to get and idea of what I am about to talk you through.

If you don’t want me spoiling all the fun, please stop reading here. Magic is meant to be entertaining. Moreover, my interpretations might not be accurate although they may as well be used to perform a similar trick with the same effect. Therefore, reading is not recommended to those of you who enjoy magic for what it really is: entertainment.

When reading magic tricks you have to keep in mind that they are just tricks. You need to eliminate all the impossibilities from your head and start thinking of the magician/performer as a normal human being just like yourself. Magicians do not posses super powers of some sort. Saying that, it is simply not possible for Darren to know the future, nor his guest (David Tennant or Dr. Who for those of you who live in Britain).

This is a very good start. Once we throw away this simple fact, we need to look at all others which are more realistic. Knowing Darren’s work I hardly believe that he had ever used stooges for his performances. I believe that they are truly genuine. My assumption is that it all did happen the way it was shown on Channel 4. Again, it is quite important to have this in mind because otherwise your brain will jump all over the place, coming up with all kinds of conclusions which will definitely put you on the wrong track.

Keeping in mind that Darren, neither David, had no idea of what articles will appear in The Guardian 3 days after the first act took place, we have to assume that the letter which David had put into his pocket was forged on the day of the second act. That leads us to the conclusion that the real letter was substituted with a fake one. Now, let’s roll back in time and see some of the facts that support this conclusion.

The first Act

First of all, magic tricks are series of simple but very powerful acts. I must say that most magic tricks are 90% performance and 10% trickery. Ignore the pool and the mental relaxations and all other bits and pieces of a similar sort. They are there to suggest that something magical is about to happen. Second, pay attention on how weird the first act is. First of all, Darren asks David to write something down, which presumably is meant to open David’s hidden powers of predicting the future – another suggestion I guess. This is also used later as a proof that the actual letter is authentic. However, keep in mind that the top blank sheet of paper lays on the top of several other sheets which probably are made from a very, very soft material. Also, take a look at the pen. It seems that David hold a ballpoint pen which we all know to be quite sharp and as a result will mirror all the writings. On the top of that, pay attention that David is asked to write down his predictions in auto-pilot mode, without even looking at the sheet in front of him. Keep also in mind that he is repeatedly destructed by Darren. If you try this situation yourself you will see that your writings will turn out to be a complete nonsense. Of course, all this is done for a reason and the reason is to make the later forgery simpler and less questionable.

The second Act

On the day of the second act, Darren had completed the forgery before the performance as had have access to the morning paper. He used the the bottom sheets of paper to duplicate David’s writing style. There are several very delicate suggestions which Darren had put in place in order to make his act less questionable. All of these things will be ignored by your conscious brain but will be deeply absorbed by the unconscious one. Do you know what I am talking about? Pay attention to the actual envelopes. The bigger one is folded a bit. This may not seem too important but it is enough to drive your unconscious and conscious brain to amazement when Darren is done with you at the end of the performance. Now pay attention that for a moment Darren have both the envelope and the paper in his hands. This is where the switch happens. In fact, the real envelope is underneath the paper. And finally, pay attention on the actual article. Darren had chosen a very vivid, colorful article to grab your attention. Some words from the letter even appear inside the front picture. Wow! Now that must be pure magic.

The Result

The result is a well performed magic trick. I am sure you were amazed while watching the footages above.