Last Wednesday (09/09/2009) Derren Brown predicted, or at least he made us to believe that he did, five numbers from the lottery draw aired on BBC. For those of you who have no clue what I am talking about, here is a video footage from the show.
How did he do it?
I was eager to find out but since he promised to reveal the secret the following Friday, I retained myself from making any guesses until I see the show on TV first. His explanation is out now and as I thought things do not add up as nicely as I would like.
So here is what I think is possible and what is not. Let’s lay out some facts:
- You cannot predict a relatively random sequence of numbers – unless it is not random at all. Any claims and proof that the lottery is predictable will make the draw automatically invalid. Not random means that it is fixed. It also means that it is unfair.
- The lottery draw is NOT invalid – and therefore it wasn’t predicted as he tried to made us to believe. Derren did get an approval from Camelot to do the show and they were completely aware of what he was up to. Camelot knew that the draw cannot be invalidated because Derren did not and could not get the winning numbers, which leads us to the obvious conclusion that it is only an illusion.
- Even if the lottery can be predicted due to being not random, it is very unlikely that Derren has access to resources that can give him the ability to predict the numbers. Think about all technical aspects required to perform a one time guess of something that is the end result of many system properties and variables which are influenced by all kinds of internal and external processes.
The most likely explanation of the trick is usually the most obvious one. The most obvious explanation is that this is a live video montage. Why? Well, why didn’t he do the draw live on stage but inside a studio? The reason for this is because he cannot guess the winning numbers. Only a studio with fixed lighting and scene will let him to create the illusion.
Another peculiar thing about this act is that he essentially gives deliberate hints on exactly how everything works in reality. At the beginning of the show where the trick was explained, he starts by presenting to the audience 3 possible options he could have employed in order to pull off this trick. Here they are:
- Fake a ticket
- Genuinely guess the winning numbers
- Fix the machine
The funny thing is how he disregards the first and most obvious solution by suggesting that it is too obvious and uninteresting and therefore it should be ignored. He quickly moves on on the second possible solution. Now this is basically 99% of the entire show. It is extremely convoluted and full of pseudoscience of all sorts. The last possible solution is of course not possible at all since this will undoubtedly land him in jail, nevertheless he spends a couple of minutes on it at the end of the show to force us to thinker between options 2 and 3 and completely ignore option 1. He is a mentalist after all.
Derren Brown is a magician at the end of the day. The power is not in the trick but in the magician being able to produce an image of something magical happening.
